Was ist das eigentlich? Cyberrisiken verständlich erklärt

Es wird viel über Cyberrisiken gesprochen. Oftmals fehlt aber das grundsätzliche Verständnis, was Cyberrisiken überhaupt sind. Ohne diese zu verstehen, lässt sich aber auch kein Versicherungsschutz gestalten.

Beinahe alle Aktivitäten des täglichen Lebens können heute über das Internet abgewickelt werden. Online-Shopping und Online-Banking sind im Alltag angekommen. Diese Entwicklung trifft längst nicht nur auf Privatleute, sondern auch auf Firmen zu. Das Schlagwort Industrie 4.0 verheißt bereits eine zunehmende Vernetzung diverser geschäftlicher Vorgänge über das Internet.

Anbieter von Cyberversicherungen für kleinere und mittelständische Unternehmen (KMU) haben Versicherungen die Erfahrung gemacht, dass trotz dieser eindeutigen Entwicklung Cyberrisiken immer noch unterschätzt werden, da sie als etwas Abstraktes wahrgenommen werden. Für KMU kann dies ein gefährlicher Trugschluss sein, da gerade hier Cyberattacken existenzbedrohende Ausmaße annehmen können. So wird noch häufig gefragt, was Cyberrisiken eigentlich sind. Diese Frage ist mehr als verständlich, denn ohne (Cyber-)Risiken bestünde auch kein Bedarf für eine (Cyber-)Versicherung.

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Exam Number : A00-240
Exam Name : SAS Statistical Business Analysis SAS9: Regression and Model
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A00-240 test Format | A00-240 Course Contents | A00-240 Course Outline | A00-240 test Syllabus | A00-240 test Objectives


This test is administered by SAS and Pearson VUE.

60 scored multiple-choice and short-answer questions.

(Must achieve score of 68 percent correct to pass)

In addition to the 60 scored items, there may be up to five unscored items.

Two hours to complete exam.

Use test ID A00-240; required when registering with Pearson VUE.



ANOVA - 10%

Verify the assumptions of ANOVA

Analyze differences between population means using the GLM and TTEST procedures

Perform ANOVA post hoc test to evaluate treatment effect

Detect and analyze interactions between factors



Linear Regression - 20%

Fit a multiple linear regression model using the REG and GLM procedures

Analyze the output of the REG, PLM, and GLM procedures for multiple linear regression models

Use the REG or GLMSELECT procedure to perform model selection

Assess the validity of a given regression model through the use of diagnostic and residual analysis



Logistic Regression - 25%

Perform logistic regression with the LOGISTIC procedure

Optimize model performance through input selection

Interpret the output of the LOGISTIC procedure

Score new data sets using the LOGISTIC and PLM procedures



Prepare Inputs for Predictive Model Performance - 20%

Identify the potential challenges when preparing input data for a model

Use the DATA step to manipulate data with loops, arrays, conditional statements and functions

Improve the predictive power of categorical inputs

Screen variables for irrelevance and non-linear association using the CORR procedure

Screen variables for non-linearity using empirical logit plots



Measure Model Performance - 25%

Apply the principles of honest test to model performance measurement

Assess classifier performance using the confusion matrix

Model selection and validation using training and validation data

Create and interpret graphs (ROC, lift, and gains charts) for model comparison and selection

Establish effective decision cut-off values for scoring



Verify the assumptions of ANOVA

 Explain the central limit theorem and when it must be applied

 Examine the distribution of continuous variables (histogram, box -whisker, Q-Q plots)

 Describe the effect of skewness on the normal distribution

 Define H0, H1, Type I/II error, statistical power, p-value

 Describe the effect of sample size on p-value and power

 Interpret the results of hypothesis testing

 Interpret histograms and normal probability charts

 Draw conclusions about your data from histogram, box-whisker, and Q-Q plots

 Identify the kinds of problems may be present in the data: (biased sample, outliers, extreme values)

 For a given experiment, verify that the observations are independent

 For a given experiment, verify the errors are normally distributed

 Use the UNIVARIATE procedure to examine residuals

 For a given experiment, verify all groups have equal response variance

 Use the HOVTEST option of MEANS statement in PROC GLM to asses response variance



Analyze differences between population means using the GLM and TTEST procedures

 Use the GLM Procedure to perform ANOVA

o CLASS statement

o MODEL statement

o MEANS statement

o OUTPUT statement

 Evaluate the null hypothesis using the output of the GLM procedure

 Interpret the statistical output of the GLM procedure (variance derived from MSE, Fvalue, p-value R**2, Levene's test)

 Interpret the graphical output of the GLM procedure

 Use the TTEST Procedure to compare means Perform ANOVA post hoc test to evaluate treatment effect



Use the LSMEANS statement in the GLM or PLM procedure to perform pairwise comparisons

 Use PDIFF option of LSMEANS statement

 Use ADJUST option of the LSMEANS statement (TUKEY and DUNNETT)

 Interpret diffograms to evaluate pairwise comparisons

 Interpret control plots to evaluate pairwise comparisons

 Compare/Contrast use of pairwise T-Tests, Tukey and Dunnett comparison methods Detect and analyze interactions between factors

 Use the GLM procedure to produce reports that will help determine the significance of the interaction between factors. MODEL statement

 LSMEANS with SLICE=option (Also using PROC PLM)

 ODS SELECT

 Interpret the output of the GLM procedure to identify interaction between factors:

 p-value

 F Value

 R Squared

 TYPE I SS

 TYPE III SS



Linear Regression - 20%



Fit a multiple linear regression model using the REG and GLM procedures

 Use the REG procedure to fit a multiple linear regression model

 Use the GLM procedure to fit a multiple linear regression model



Analyze the output of the REG, PLM, and GLM procedures for multiple linear regression models

 Interpret REG or GLM procedure output for a multiple linear regression model:

 convert models to algebraic expressions

 Convert models to algebraic expressions

 Identify missing degrees of freedom

 Identify variance due to model/error, and total variance

 Calculate a missing F value

 Identify variable with largest impact to model

 For output from two models, identify which model is better

 Identify how much of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the model

 Conclusions that can be drawn from REG, GLM, or PLM output: (about H0, model quality, graphics)

Use the REG or GLMSELECT procedure to perform model selection



Use the SELECTION option of the model statement in the GLMSELECT procedure

 Compare the differentmodel selection methods (STEPWISE, FORWARD, BACKWARD)

 Enable ODS graphics to display graphs from the REG or GLMSELECT procedure

 Identify best models by examining the graphical output (fit criterion from the REG or GLMSELECT procedure)

 Assign names to models in the REG procedure (multiple model statements)

Assess the validity of a given regression model through the use of diagnostic and residual analysis

 Explain the assumptions for linear regression

 From a set of residuals plots, asses which assumption about the error terms has been violated

 Use REG procedure MODEL statement options to identify influential observations (Student Residuals, Cook's D, DFFITS, DFBETAS)

 Explain options for handling influential observations

 Identify collinearity problems by examining REG procedure output

 Use MODEL statement options to diagnose collinearity problems (VIF, COLLIN, COLLINOINT)



Logistic Regression - 25%

Perform logistic regression with the LOGISTIC procedure

 Identify experiments that require analysis via logistic regression

 Identify logistic regression assumptions

 logistic regression concepts (log odds, logit transformation, sigmoidal relationship between p and X)

 Use the LOGISTIC procedure to fit a binary logistic regression model (MODEL and CLASS statements)



Optimize model performance through input selection

 Use the LOGISTIC procedure to fit a multiple logistic regression model

 LOGISTIC procedure SELECTION=SCORE option

 Perform Model Selection (STEPWISE, FORWARD, BACKWARD) within the LOGISTIC procedure



Interpret the output of the LOGISTIC procedure

 Interpret the output from the LOGISTIC procedure for binary logistic regression models: Model Convergence section

 Testing Global Null Hypothesis table

 Type 3 Analysis of Effects table

 Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates table



Association of Predicted Probabilities and Observed Responses

Score new data sets using the LOGISTIC and PLM procedures

 Use the SCORE statement in the PLM procedure to score new cases

 Use the CODE statement in PROC LOGISTIC to score new data

 Describe when you would use the SCORE statement vs the CODE statement in PROC LOGISTIC

 Use the INMODEL/OUTMODEL options in PROC LOGISTIC

 Explain how to score new data when you have developed a model from a biased sample

Prepare Inputs for Predictive Model



Performance - 20%

Identify the potential challenges when preparing input data for a model

 Identify problems that missing values can cause in creating predictive models and scoring new data sets

 Identify limitations of Complete Case Analysis

 Explain problems caused by categorical variables with numerous levels

 Discuss the problem of redundant variables

 Discuss the problem of irrelevant and redundant variables

 Discuss the non-linearities and the problems they create in predictive models

 Discuss outliers and the problems they create in predictive models

 Describe quasi-complete separation

 Discuss the effect of interactions

 Determine when it is necessary to oversample data



Use the DATA step to manipulate data with loops, arrays, conditional statements and functions

 Use ARRAYs to create missing indicators

 Use ARRAYS, LOOP, IF, and explicit OUTPUT statements



Improve the predictive power of categorical inputs

 Reduce the number of levels of a categorical variable

 Explain thresholding

 Explain Greenacre's method

 Cluster the levels of a categorical variable via Greenacre's method using the CLUSTER procedure

o METHOD=WARD option

o FREQ, VAR, ID statement



Use of ODS output to create an output data set

 Convert categorical variables to continuous using smooth weight of evidence



Screen variables for irrelevance and non-linear association using the CORR procedure

 Explain how Hoeffding's D and Spearman statistics can be used to find irrelevant variables and non-linear associations

 Produce Spearman and Hoeffding's D statistic using the CORR procedure (VAR, WITH statement)

 Interpret a scatter plot of Hoeffding's D and Spearman statistic to identify irrelevant variables and non-linear associations Screen variables for non-linearity using empirical logit plots

 Use the RANK procedure to bin continuous input variables (GROUPS=, OUT= option; VAR, RANK statements)

 Interpret RANK procedure output

 Use the MEANS procedure to calculate the sum and means for the target cases and total events (NWAY option; CLASS, VAR, OUTPUT statements)

 Create empirical logit plots with the SGPLOT procedure

 Interpret empirical logit plots



Measure Model Performance - 25%

Apply the principles of honest test to model performance measurement

 Explain techniques to honestly assess classifier performance

 Explain overfitting

 Explain differences between validation and test data

 Identify the impact of performing data preparation before data is split Assess classifier performance using the confusion matrix

 Explain the confusion matrix

 Define: Accuracy, Error Rate, Sensitivity, Specificity, PV+, PV-

 Explain the effect of oversampling on the confusion matrix

 Adjust the confusion matrix for oversampling



Model selection and validation using training and validation data

 Divide data into training and validation data sets using the SURVEYSELECT procedure

 Discuss the subset selection methods available in PROC LOGISTIC

 Discuss methods to determine interactions (forward selection, with bar and @ notation)



Create interaction plot with the results from PROC LOGISTIC

 Select the model with fit statistics (BIC, AIC, KS, Brier score)

Create and interpret graphs (ROC, lift, and gains charts) for model comparison and selection

 Explain and interpret charts (ROC, Lift, Gains)

 Create a ROC curve (OUTROC option of the SCORE statement in the LOGISTIC procedure)

 Use the ROC and ROCCONTRAST statements to create an overlay plot of ROC curves for two or more models

 Explain the concept of depth as it relates to the gains chart



Establish effective decision cut-off values for scoring

 Illustrate a decision rule that maximizes the expected profit

 Explain the profit matrix and how to use it to estimate the profit per scored customer

 Calculate decision cutoffs using Bayes rule, given a profit matrix

 Determine optimum cutoff values from profit plots

 Given a profit matrix, and model results, determine the model with the highest average profit



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Warum sind Cyberrisiken so schwer greifbar?

Als mehr oder weniger neuartiges Phänomen stellen Cyberrisiken Unternehmen und Versicherer vor besondere Herausforderungen. Nicht nur die neuen Schadenszenarien sind abstrakter oder noch nicht bekannt. Häufig sind immaterielle Werte durch Cyberrisiken in Gefahr. Diese wertvollen Vermögensgegenstände sind schwer bewertbar.

Obwohl die Gefahr durchaus wahrgenommen wird, unterschätzen viele Firmen ihr eigenes Risiko. Dies liegt unter anderem auch an den Veröffentlichungen zu Cyberrisiken. In der Presse finden sich unzählige Berichte von Cyberattacken auf namhafte und große Unternehmen. Den Weg in die Presse finden eben nur die spektakulären Fälle. Die dort genannten Schadenszenarien werden dann für das eigene Unternehmen als unrealistisch eingestuft. Die für die KMU nicht minder gefährlichen Cyber­attacken werden nur selten publiziert.

Aufgrund der fehlenden öffentlichen Meldungen von Sicherheitsvorfällen an Sicherheitsbehörden und wegen der fehlenden Presseberichte fällt es schwer, Fakten und Zahlen zur Risikolage zu erheben. Aber ohne diese Grundlage fällt es schwer, in entsprechende Sicherheitsmaßnahmen zu investieren.

Erklärungsleitfaden anhand eines Ursache-Wirkungs-Modells

Häufig nähert man sich dem Thema Cyberrisiko anlass- oder eventbezogen, also wenn sich neue Schaden­szenarien wie die weltweite WannaCry-Attacke entwickeln. Häufig wird auch akteursgebunden beleuchtet, wer Angreifer oder Opfer sein kann. Dadurch begrenzt man sich bei dem Thema häufig zu sehr nur auf die Cyberkriminalität. Um dem Thema Cyberrisiko jedoch gerecht zu werden, müssen auch weitere Ursachen hinzugezogen werden.

Mit einer Kategorisierung kann das Thema ganzheitlich und nachvollziehbar strukturiert werden. Ebenso hilft eine solche Kategorisierung dabei, eine Abgrenzung vorzunehmen, für welche Gefahren Versicherungsschutz über eine etwaige Cyberversicherung besteht und für welche nicht.

Die Ursachen sind dabei die Risiken, während finanzielle bzw. nicht finanzielle Verluste die Wirkungen sind. Cyberrisiken werden demnach in zwei Hauptursachen eingeteilt. Auf der einen Seite sind die nicht kriminellen Ursachen und auf der anderen Seite die kriminellen Ursachen zu nennen. Beide Ursachen können dabei in drei Untergruppen unterteilt werden.

Nicht kriminelle Ursachen

Höhere Gewalt

Häufig hat man bei dem Thema Cyberrisiko nur die kriminellen Ursachen vor Augen. Aber auch höhere Gewalt kann zu einem empfindlichen Datenverlust führen oder zumindest die Verfügbarkeit von Daten einschränken, indem Rechenzentren durch Naturkatastrophen wie beispielsweise Überschwemmungen oder Erdbeben zerstört werden. Ebenso sind Stromausfälle denkbar.

Menschliches Versagen/Fehlverhalten

Als Cyberrisiken sind auch unbeabsichtigtes und menschliches Fehlverhalten denkbar. Hierunter könnte das versehentliche Veröffentlichen von sensiblen Informationen fallen. Möglich sind eine falsche Adressierung, Wahl einer falschen Faxnummer oder das Hochladen sensibler Daten auf einen öffentlichen Bereich der Homepage.

Technisches Versagen

Auch Hardwaredefekte können zu einem herben Datenverlust führen. Neben einem Überhitzen von Rechnern sind Kurzschlüsse in Systemtechnik oder sogenannte Headcrashes von Festplatten denkbare Szenarien.

Kriminelle Ursachen

Hackerangriffe

Hackerangriffe oder Cyberattacken sind in der Regel die Szenarien, die die Presse dominieren. Häufig wird von spektakulären Datendiebstählen auf große Firmen oder von weltweiten Angriffen mit sogenannten Kryptotrojanern berichtet. Opfer kann am Ende aber jeder werden. Ziele, Methoden und auch das Interesse sind vielfältig. Neben dem finanziellen Interesse können Hackerangriffe auch zur Spionage oder Sabotage eingesetzt werden. Mögliche Hackermethoden sind unter anderem: Social Engineering, Trojaner, DoS-Attacken oder Viren.

Physischer Angriff

Die Zielsetzung eines physischen Angriffs ist ähnlich dem eines Hacker­angriffs. Dabei wird nicht auf die Tools eines Hackerangriffs zurückgegriffen, sondern durch das physische Eindringen in Unternehmensgebäude das Ziel erreicht. Häufig sind es Mitarbeiter, die vertrauliche Informationen stehlen, da sie bereits den notwendigen Zugang zu den Daten besitzen.

Erpressung

Obwohl die Erpressung aufgrund der eingesetzten Methoden auch als Hacker­angriff gewertet werden könnte, ergibt eine Differenzierung Sinn. Erpressungsfälle durch Kryptotrojaner sind eines der häufigsten Schadenszenarien für kleinere und mittelständische Unternehmen. Außerdem sind auch Erpressungsfälle denkbar, bei denen sensible Daten gestohlen wurden und ein Lösegeld gefordert wird, damit sie nicht veröffentlicht oder weiterverkauft werden.

Ihre Cyberversicherung sollte zumindet folgende Schäden abdecken:

Cyber-Kosten:

  • Soforthilfe und Forensik-Kosten (Kosten der Ursachenermittlung, Benachrichtigungskosten und Callcenter-Leistung)
  • Krisenkommunikation / PR-Maßnahmen
  • Systemverbesserungen nach einer Cyber-Attacke
  • Aufwendungen vor Eintritt des Versicherungsfalls

Cyber-Drittschäden (Haftpflicht):

  • Befriedigung oder Abwehr von Ansprüchen Dritter
  • Rechtswidrige elektronische Kommunikation
  • Ansprüche der E-Payment-Serviceprovider
  • Vertragsstrafe wegen der Verletzung von Geheimhaltungspflichten und Datenschutzvereinbarungen
  • Vertragliche Schadenersatzansprüche
  • Vertragliche Haftpflicht bei Datenverarbeitung durch Dritte
  • Rechtsverteidigungskosten

Cyber-Eigenschäden:

  • Betriebsunterbrechung
  • Betriebsunterbrechung durch Ausfall von Dienstleister (optional)
  • Mehrkosten
  • Wiederherstellung von Daten (auch Entfernen der Schadsoftware)
  • Cyber-Diebstahl: elektronischer Zahlungsverkehr, fehlerhafter Versand von Waren, Telefon-Mehrkosten/erhöhte Nutzungsentgelte
  • Cyber-Erpressung
  • Entschädigung mit Strafcharakter/Bußgeld
  • Ersatz-IT-Hardware
  • Cyber-Betrug