Was ist das eigentlich? Cyberrisiken verständlich erklärt

Es wird viel über Cyberrisiken gesprochen. Oftmals fehlt aber das grundsätzliche Verständnis, was Cyberrisiken überhaupt sind. Ohne diese zu verstehen, lässt sich aber auch kein Versicherungsschutz gestalten.

Beinahe alle Aktivitäten des täglichen Lebens können heute über das Internet abgewickelt werden. Online-Shopping und Online-Banking sind im Alltag angekommen. Diese Entwicklung trifft längst nicht nur auf Privatleute, sondern auch auf Firmen zu. Das Schlagwort Industrie 4.0 verheißt bereits eine zunehmende Vernetzung diverser geschäftlicher Vorgänge über das Internet.

Anbieter von Cyberversicherungen für kleinere und mittelständische Unternehmen (KMU) haben Versicherungen die Erfahrung gemacht, dass trotz dieser eindeutigen Entwicklung Cyberrisiken immer noch unterschätzt werden, da sie als etwas Abstraktes wahrgenommen werden. Für KMU kann dies ein gefährlicher Trugschluss sein, da gerade hier Cyberattacken existenzbedrohende Ausmaße annehmen können. So wird noch häufig gefragt, was Cyberrisiken eigentlich sind. Diese Frage ist mehr als verständlich, denn ohne (Cyber-)Risiken bestünde auch kein Bedarf für eine (Cyber-)Versicherung.

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Certified Valuation Analyst® (CVA®) Determine, Defend, and Maximize Company Value™



Business valuation is the "Gold Rush" of the century. 10 million small businesses will change hands over the next 10 years. Could you confidently advise your clients if they came to you faced with these issues=>

An opportunity arises to sell or merge the business.

They are faced with transitioning the business to family members or other partners.

They are looking to expand the business and need to secure capital.

They are taking on new partners and need to determine buy-in price.

They are reaching retirement and considering an exit strategy.

Business partners or shareholders are exiting, requiring the business to be divided or dissolved.

They are embroiled in financial litigation.

They want to focus energies to grow company value.



Establish your authority in matters of value! Bolster your reputation with your clients. Enhance your credibility within the business community. Demonstrate competency to the courts that you can articulate business value.



I. OVERVIEW 4.0%

A. Purpose for business valuation 0.5%

1. Financial accounting

2. Tax valuations

3. Litigation

4. Merger and acquisition

B. Standards of value 1.5%

1. Definitions of standards of value, including

a) Fair market value (U.S. based definition as starting point)

b) Statutory fair value

c) Financial reporting fair value

(1) IFRS

(2) U.S. GAAP

d) Investment (strategic) value

e) Intrinsic (fundamental) value

2. Relationship between purpose of the valuation and standard of value

C. Premise of value 0.5%

1. Going concern

2. Assemblage of assets

3. Liquidation (orderly or forced)

D. Principles of value 1.0%

1. Value is determined as of specific point in time

2. Value reflects prospective cash flow

3. Value reflects the level of risk into the rate of return

4. Value is influenced by liquidity

E. Levels of value 0.5%

1. Lack of control (minority vs. control)

2. Marketable vs. non-marketable

3. Strategic and investment value

II. PROFESSIONAL RESPONSIBILITIES AND STANDARDS 4.5%

A. NACVA Standards 1.5%

B. Ethical considerations 1.0%

C. Communicating and reporting analysis and results 1.0%

D. Roles of the valuation analyst in litigation services 1.0%

III. ENGAGEMENT ACCEPTANCE AND PLANNING 3.0%

A. Defining the engagement 1.0%

1. Valuation date and its importance

2. Structure of the entity

3. Interest being valued

4. Purpose and objective of valuation

5. Standard of value and premise of value

6. Conflict checks

B. Engagement Letters 1.0%

1. Purpose

2. Content

C. Acceptance 1.0%

1. Experience

2. Staffing

3. Expectations

IV. QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS 9.0%

A. International Sources of Data 1.5%

B. Economic Environment 1.5%

1. Macro-environment

2. Micro-environment

3. Relationship of economic activity to the valuation

C. Industry background 3.0%

1. Economic data

2. Structure, trends, and life cycle

3. Market and competitive analysis

D. Company background 3.0%

1. Company structure and ownership

2. Site visit and interviews with key personnel

3. History and nature

4. Economic data (cost structure, pricing power, marginal analysis)

5. SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats)

V. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS 15.5%

A. Financial statements 4.5%

1. Source (audited/reviewed/compiled/tax returns/internal)

2. Number of years to obtain

3. Common size

4. Trend analysis

5. Ratios

6. Comparative analysis

a) Specific company

b) Industry averages

B. Adjustments to financial statements 4.5%

1. Normalizing

a) Control vs. non-control

b) Discretionary

c) Reasonable compensation analysis

d) Extraordinary/non-recurring

2. Operating vs. non-operating items

3. Off-balance sheet and unrecorded items

C. Statistical Analysis 3.0%

1. Measures of central tendency (arithmetic, harmonic, geometric means)

2. Measures of dispersion (including variance and standard deviation)

3. Statistical strengths of numerical relationships (including covariance, correlation, coefficient of determination, and coefficient of variation)

4. Linear regression

D. Types of benefit streams and selection 3.5%

1. Selection of appropriate time periods (including mid-year convention)

2. Selection of appropriate type of income/cash flow

3. Growth assumptions

a) Trend line projected

b) Constant

c) Erratic

d) Level

e) Declining growth approaches

E. Historical vs. projection based on considerations

F. Relating effects due to economic/industry events and trends

G. Pass-through entities – tax effecting of the benefit stream

VI. VALUATION APPROACHES 28%

A. Income approach 10%

1. General theory

2. Defining applicable income/cash flow

3. Sources of data

4. Capitalization vs. discount rates

5. Commonly used methods

a) Discounted economic income/cash flow method (DCF) (multi-stage model)

(1) The method is applied using cash flow available to invested capital

(2) The method is applied using cash flow available to equity

b) Capitalized economic income/cash flow method (CCF), including Gordon Growth

Model (constant growth model)

(1) The method is applied using cash flow available to invested capital

(2) The method is applied using cash flow available to equity

c) Excess earnings (cash flow) method

d) Dividend paying capacity

B. Market approach 8.0%

1. General theory

2. Commonly used methods

a) Transactions in subject companys stock

b) Transactions/sales of companies similar to subject

(1) Guideline public companies

(a) General theory

(b) Selecting guideline companies

i) Sources of data

ii) Size adjustments

(c) Equity vs. invested capital (including multiples)

(d) Selection of appropriate time periods

(e) Selection of appropriate multiples

i) Adjusting for growth, size, and company specific risk

(2) Guideline merged and acquired companies

(a) General theory

(b) Sources of data/relevant transactional databases

(c) Consideration of the selection of data points

C. Asset Approach 6.0%

1. General theory

2. Sources of data

3. Commonly used methods

a) Book value

b) Net tangible value

c) Adjusted net asset method (intangible and tangible assets)

d) Excess earnings method

e) Liquidation method (forced or orderly)

4. Identifying and valuing intangible assets

a) Approaches and methods

b) Estimated life

c) Impairment

5. Off-balance sheet and unrecorded items (including tax issues)

D. Sanity Checks 2.0%

1. General theory

2. Sources of data

3. Commonly used methods

a) Industry formulas (“Rules of Thumb”)

b) Justification of purchase

E. Reconciliation of indicated values 2.0%

VII. COST OF CAPITAL CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGY, AND OTHER PRICING MODELS 17.5%

A. Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) 6.0%

1. Risk free rate

2. Equity risk premium

3. Beta (ß) including un-levered and re-levered

B. Build-up method and Modified CAPM 5.5%

1. Risk free rate

2. Equity risk premium

3. Beta (ß) including un-levered and re-levered

4. Size risk premium

5. Industry risk premium

6. Company specific risk

7. Long-term sustainable growth

8. Other

C. Weighted average cost of capital 4.0%

D. Converting after tax risk rates to pre-tax rates 1.0%

E. Other recognized methods (e.g. Gordon Growth, Arbitrage Pricing, Fama- French Three Factor, Market Multiples, Risk Rate Component Model) 1.0%

VIII. DISCOUNTS, PREMIUMS, AND OTHER ADJUSTMENTS 13%

A. Levels of value and effect on discounts and premiums 2.0%

1. Synergistic value

2. Control value

3. Non-controlling, marketable value

4. Non-controlling, non-marketable value

B. Adjustments for Control Issues 3.5%

1. General theory

2. Sources of data

3. Ownership characteristics

4. Magnitude

5. Relationship to how benefit stream is defined

C. Adjustments for Marketability Issues 3.5%

1. General theory

2. Sources of data

3. Ownership characteristics

4. Restrictions on transferability

5. Magnitude

6. Models

D. Discounts and premiums—understanding the empirical studies 2.0%

E. Subsequent events 1.0%

F. Other valuation discounts and adjustments (e.g. Key Person, Blockage, Restrictive Agreement, Lack of Voting, Lack of Liquidity, Contingent Liabilities) 1.0%

IX. SPECIAL PURPOSE VALUATION 5.5% %

A. Intangible assets 2.0%

B. Debt securities 0.5%

C. Convertible securities 0.5%

D. Preferred stock 0.5%

E. Stock options 0.5%

F. Voting vs. Non-voting stock 0.5%

G. Professional vs. practice goodwill 0.5%

H. Other special purpose valuations (e.g. Fair Value, Mergers and Acquisitions, Pension Benefits, Insurance policies) 0.5%

Total 100%



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Warum sind Cyberrisiken so schwer greifbar?

Als mehr oder weniger neuartiges Phänomen stellen Cyberrisiken Unternehmen und Versicherer vor besondere Herausforderungen. Nicht nur die neuen Schadenszenarien sind abstrakter oder noch nicht bekannt. Häufig sind immaterielle Werte durch Cyberrisiken in Gefahr. Diese wertvollen Vermögensgegenstände sind schwer bewertbar.

Obwohl die Gefahr durchaus wahrgenommen wird, unterschätzen viele Firmen ihr eigenes Risiko. Dies liegt unter anderem auch an den Veröffentlichungen zu Cyberrisiken. In der Presse finden sich unzählige Berichte von Cyberattacken auf namhafte und große Unternehmen. Den Weg in die Presse finden eben nur die spektakulären Fälle. Die dort genannten Schadenszenarien werden dann für das eigene Unternehmen als unrealistisch eingestuft. Die für die KMU nicht minder gefährlichen Cyber­attacken werden nur selten publiziert.

Aufgrund der fehlenden öffentlichen Meldungen von Sicherheitsvorfällen an Sicherheitsbehörden und wegen der fehlenden Presseberichte fällt es schwer, Fakten und Zahlen zur Risikolage zu erheben. Aber ohne diese Grundlage fällt es schwer, in entsprechende Sicherheitsmaßnahmen zu investieren.

Erklärungsleitfaden anhand eines Ursache-Wirkungs-Modells

Häufig nähert man sich dem Thema Cyberrisiko anlass- oder eventbezogen, also wenn sich neue Schaden­szenarien wie die weltweite WannaCry-Attacke entwickeln. Häufig wird auch akteursgebunden beleuchtet, wer Angreifer oder Opfer sein kann. Dadurch begrenzt man sich bei dem Thema häufig zu sehr nur auf die Cyberkriminalität. Um dem Thema Cyberrisiko jedoch gerecht zu werden, müssen auch weitere Ursachen hinzugezogen werden.

Mit einer Kategorisierung kann das Thema ganzheitlich und nachvollziehbar strukturiert werden. Ebenso hilft eine solche Kategorisierung dabei, eine Abgrenzung vorzunehmen, für welche Gefahren Versicherungsschutz über eine etwaige Cyberversicherung besteht und für welche nicht.

Die Ursachen sind dabei die Risiken, während finanzielle bzw. nicht finanzielle Verluste die Wirkungen sind. Cyberrisiken werden demnach in zwei Hauptursachen eingeteilt. Auf der einen Seite sind die nicht kriminellen Ursachen und auf der anderen Seite die kriminellen Ursachen zu nennen. Beide Ursachen können dabei in drei Untergruppen unterteilt werden.

Nicht kriminelle Ursachen

Höhere Gewalt

Häufig hat man bei dem Thema Cyberrisiko nur die kriminellen Ursachen vor Augen. Aber auch höhere Gewalt kann zu einem empfindlichen Datenverlust führen oder zumindest die Verfügbarkeit von Daten einschränken, indem Rechenzentren durch Naturkatastrophen wie beispielsweise Überschwemmungen oder Erdbeben zerstört werden. Ebenso sind Stromausfälle denkbar.

Menschliches Versagen/Fehlverhalten

Als Cyberrisiken sind auch unbeabsichtigtes und menschliches Fehlverhalten denkbar. Hierunter könnte das versehentliche Veröffentlichen von sensiblen Informationen fallen. Möglich sind eine falsche Adressierung, Wahl einer falschen Faxnummer oder das Hochladen sensibler Daten auf einen öffentlichen Bereich der Homepage.

Technisches Versagen

Auch Hardwaredefekte können zu einem herben Datenverlust führen. Neben einem Überhitzen von Rechnern sind Kurzschlüsse in Systemtechnik oder sogenannte Headcrashes von Festplatten denkbare Szenarien.

Kriminelle Ursachen

Hackerangriffe

Hackerangriffe oder Cyberattacken sind in der Regel die Szenarien, die die Presse dominieren. Häufig wird von spektakulären Datendiebstählen auf große Firmen oder von weltweiten Angriffen mit sogenannten Kryptotrojanern berichtet. Opfer kann am Ende aber jeder werden. Ziele, Methoden und auch das Interesse sind vielfältig. Neben dem finanziellen Interesse können Hackerangriffe auch zur Spionage oder Sabotage eingesetzt werden. Mögliche Hackermethoden sind unter anderem: Social Engineering, Trojaner, DoS-Attacken oder Viren.

Physischer Angriff

Die Zielsetzung eines physischen Angriffs ist ähnlich dem eines Hacker­angriffs. Dabei wird nicht auf die Tools eines Hackerangriffs zurückgegriffen, sondern durch das physische Eindringen in Unternehmensgebäude das Ziel erreicht. Häufig sind es Mitarbeiter, die vertrauliche Informationen stehlen, da sie bereits den notwendigen Zugang zu den Daten besitzen.

Erpressung

Obwohl die Erpressung aufgrund der eingesetzten Methoden auch als Hacker­angriff gewertet werden könnte, ergibt eine Differenzierung Sinn. Erpressungsfälle durch Kryptotrojaner sind eines der häufigsten Schadenszenarien für kleinere und mittelständische Unternehmen. Außerdem sind auch Erpressungsfälle denkbar, bei denen sensible Daten gestohlen wurden und ein Lösegeld gefordert wird, damit sie nicht veröffentlicht oder weiterverkauft werden.

Ihre Cyberversicherung sollte zumindet folgende Schäden abdecken:

Cyber-Kosten:

  • Soforthilfe und Forensik-Kosten (Kosten der Ursachenermittlung, Benachrichtigungskosten und Callcenter-Leistung)
  • Krisenkommunikation / PR-Maßnahmen
  • Systemverbesserungen nach einer Cyber-Attacke
  • Aufwendungen vor Eintritt des Versicherungsfalls

Cyber-Drittschäden (Haftpflicht):

  • Befriedigung oder Abwehr von Ansprüchen Dritter
  • Rechtswidrige elektronische Kommunikation
  • Ansprüche der E-Payment-Serviceprovider
  • Vertragsstrafe wegen der Verletzung von Geheimhaltungspflichten und Datenschutzvereinbarungen
  • Vertragliche Schadenersatzansprüche
  • Vertragliche Haftpflicht bei Datenverarbeitung durch Dritte
  • Rechtsverteidigungskosten

Cyber-Eigenschäden:

  • Betriebsunterbrechung
  • Betriebsunterbrechung durch Ausfall von Dienstleister (optional)
  • Mehrkosten
  • Wiederherstellung von Daten (auch Entfernen der Schadsoftware)
  • Cyber-Diebstahl: elektronischer Zahlungsverkehr, fehlerhafter Versand von Waren, Telefon-Mehrkosten/erhöhte Nutzungsentgelte
  • Cyber-Erpressung
  • Entschädigung mit Strafcharakter/Bußgeld
  • Ersatz-IT-Hardware
  • Cyber-Betrug