Was ist das eigentlich? Cyberrisiken verständlich erklärt

Es wird viel über Cyberrisiken gesprochen. Oftmals fehlt aber das grundsätzliche Verständnis, was Cyberrisiken überhaupt sind. Ohne diese zu verstehen, lässt sich aber auch kein Versicherungsschutz gestalten.

Beinahe alle Aktivitäten des täglichen Lebens können heute über das Internet abgewickelt werden. Online-Shopping und Online-Banking sind im Alltag angekommen. Diese Entwicklung trifft längst nicht nur auf Privatleute, sondern auch auf Firmen zu. Das Schlagwort Industrie 4.0 verheißt bereits eine zunehmende Vernetzung diverser geschäftlicher Vorgänge über das Internet.

Anbieter von Cyberversicherungen für kleinere und mittelständische Unternehmen (KMU) haben Versicherungen die Erfahrung gemacht, dass trotz dieser eindeutigen Entwicklung Cyberrisiken immer noch unterschätzt werden, da sie als etwas Abstraktes wahrgenommen werden. Für KMU kann dies ein gefährlicher Trugschluss sein, da gerade hier Cyberattacken existenzbedrohende Ausmaße annehmen können. So wird noch häufig gefragt, was Cyberrisiken eigentlich sind. Diese Frage ist mehr als verständlich, denn ohne (Cyber-)Risiken bestünde auch kein Bedarf für eine (Cyber-)Versicherung.

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F5-Networks Configuring Latest Topics

 

F5: Hardware Headwinds Hitting

Server room background

piranka

Despite the stock performing well over the past five months, F5, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FFIV) returns in 2023 are still only in line with broader indices. This is counter to my expectation of poor performance due to:

  • Declining product sales in the face of backlog headwinds.
  • Market Job Openings Mentioning F5 in the Job Requirements

    Figure 1: Job Openings Mentioning F5 in the Job Requirements (source: Revealera.com)

    F5 Job Openings Mentioning NGINX in the Job Requirements

    Figure 2: Job Openings Mentioning NGINX in the Job Requirements (source: Revealera.com)

    AI Financial Analysis F5 Revenue

    Figure 3: F5 Revenue (source: Created by author using data from F5 Networks)

    F5 Product Backlog

    Figure 4: F5 Product Backlog (source: F5 Networks)

    F5 Product Revenue

    Figure 5: F5 Product Revenue (source: Created by author using data from F5 Networks)

    F5 Revenue Guidance

    Table 1: F5 Revenue Guidance (source: Created by author using data from F5 Networks)

    F5 Gross Profit Margins

    Figure 6: F5 Gross Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from F5 Networks)

    F5 Operating Profit Margin

    Figure 7: F5 Operating Profit Margin (source: Createed by author using data from F5 Networks)

    F5 Operating Expenses

    Figure 8: F5 Operating Expenses (source: Created by author using data from F5 Networks)

    Conclusion F5 EV/S Multiple

    Figure 9: F5 EV/S Multiple (source: Seeking Alpha)


    After A 13% Fall This Year How Does Ciena Compare With F5 Stock?

    BRAZIL - 2021/04/15: In this photo illustration, the F5 Networks logo seen displayed on a smartphone ... [+] screen and stock market information. (Photo Illustration by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

    SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

    Given its better prospects, they believe Ciena stock (NYSE: CIEN), a network hardware, software, and services provider, is a better pick than its sector peer, F5 Networks stock (NASDAQ NDAQ : FFIV), an application security and cloud networking company. Investors have assigned a higher valuation multiple of 3.7x revenues for FFIV compared to 1.5x revenues for CIEN due to F5’s superior revenue growth and profitability. The decision to invest often comes down to finding the best stocks within the parameters of certain characteristics that suit an investment style. The size of profits can matter, as larger profits can imply greater market power. In the sections below, they discuss why they believe that CIEN will offer better returns than FFIV in the next three years. They compare a slew of factors, such as historical revenue growth, stock returns, and valuation, in an interactive dashboard analysis of F5 vs. Ciena CIEN : Which Stock Is A Better Bet? Parts of the analysis are summarized below.

    FFIV stock has seen little change, moving slightly from levels of $175 in early January 2021 to around $175 now, while CIEN stock has seen a decline of 20% from levels of $55 to around $45 over the same period. In comparison, the S&P500 index saw an increase of about 25% over this roughly three-year period.

    Overall, the performance of FFIV stock with respect to the index has been lackluster. Returns for the stock were 39% in 2021, -41% in 2022, and 21% in 2023. Similarly, however, the decrease in CIEN stock has been far from consistent. Returns for the stock were 46% in 2021, -34% in 2022, and -13% in 2023. In comparison, returns for the S&P 500 have been 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 23% in 2023 - indicating that FFIV and CIEN underperformed the S&P in 2022 and 2023.

    In fact, consistently beating the S&P 500 - in good times and bad - has been difficult over recent years for individual stocks; for heavyweights in the Information Technology sector, including AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA, and even for the megacap stars GOOG, TSLA, and AMZN. In contrast, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has outperformed the S&P 500 each year over the same period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index, less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

    Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment with high oil prices and elevated interest rates, could FFIV and CIEN face a similar situation as they did in 2022 and 2023 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months - or will they see a strong jump? While they expect both stocks to move higher in the next three years, they think CIEN will fare better.

    1. F5’s Revenue Growth Is Better

  • F5’s revenue growth has been better, with a 6.2% average annual growth rate in the last three years, compared to 0.6% for Ciena.
  • FFIV revenues rose from $2.4 billion in fiscal 2020 (fiscal ends in September) to $2.8 billion in 2023, led by services and product revenue growth due to increasing demand and entry into new markets.
  • For Ciena, revenue increased from $3.5 billion in fiscal 2020 (fiscal ends in October) to $4.4 billion in 2023, led by continued growth in Global Services Platform Software and Services, while the Networking Platforms business also saw a rebound in fiscal 2023.
  • Supply chain issues weighed on the company’s overall performance in the recent past, and it still remains a concern.
  • Ciena expects its routing and switching business to grow faster in the coming years and drive the overall top-line growth.
  • If they look at the last twelve-month period revenues, Ciena fares better with sales growth of 14% vs. 5% for F5.
  • Our F5 Revenue Comparison and Ciena Revenue Comparison dashboards provide more insight into the companies’ sales.
  • Looking forward, they expect Ciena to see better sales growth than F5. They forecast F5’s top-line to expand at a CAGR of 3.4% to $3.1 billion in three years, while Ciena will likely see its sales rise in a mid-single-digit average annual growth rate to $5.3 billion over this period, based on Trefis Machine Learning analysis.
  • 2. F5 Is More Profitable

  • F5’s operating margin declined from 23.1% in 2019 to 15.0% in 2022, while Ciena’s operating margin contracted from 14.5% in fiscal 2020 to 8.8% in 2023.
  • Looking at the last twelve-month period, F5’s operating margin of 14.6% fares better than 8.8% for Ciena.
  • F5’s margin metric has been weighed down due to a rise in component costs.
  • Our F5 Operating Income Comparison and Ciena’s Operating Income Comparison dashboards have more details.
  • Looking at financial risk, F5 fares better. F5 is a debt-free company, while Ciena’s debt as a percentage of equity is around 24%. However, Ciena’s 22% cash as a percentage of assets is higher than 13% for F5, implying that F5 has a better debt position and Ciena has more cash cushion.
  • 3. The Net of It All

  • We see that F5 has seen better revenue growth and is more profitable.
  • Now, looking at prospects using P/S as a base, due to high fluctuations in P/E and P/EBIT, they believe Ciena will offer higher returns in the next three years.
  • Also, if they compare the current valuation multiples to the historical averages, CIEN fares better. F5 stock is trading at 3.7x revenues compared to its last five-year average of 4.3x. In comparison, Ciena stock trades at 1.7x revenues vs. the last five-year average of 2.2x.
  • Our F5 Valuation Ratios Comparison and Ciena Valuation Ratios Comparison have more details.
  • The table below summarizes their revenue and return expectations for both companies over the next three years and points to an expected return of -12% for FFIV over this period vs. a 31% expected return for CIEN, based on Trefis Machine Learning analysis – F5 vs. Ciena – which also provides more details on how they arrive at these numbers.
  • FFIV stock versus CIEN stock

    Trefis

    While CIEN stock may outperform FFIV, it is helpful to see how F5’s peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

    FFIV Return Compared with Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio

    Trefis

    Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

    See all Trefis Price Estimates


     




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    Warum sind Cyberrisiken so schwer greifbar?

    Als mehr oder weniger neuartiges Phänomen stellen Cyberrisiken Unternehmen und Versicherer vor besondere Herausforderungen. Nicht nur die neuen Schadenszenarien sind abstrakter oder noch nicht bekannt. Häufig sind immaterielle Werte durch Cyberrisiken in Gefahr. Diese wertvollen Vermögensgegenstände sind schwer bewertbar.

    Obwohl die Gefahr durchaus wahrgenommen wird, unterschätzen viele Firmen ihr eigenes Risiko. Dies liegt unter anderem auch an den Veröffentlichungen zu Cyberrisiken. In der Presse finden sich unzählige Berichte von Cyberattacken auf namhafte und große Unternehmen. Den Weg in die Presse finden eben nur die spektakulären Fälle. Die dort genannten Schadenszenarien werden dann für das eigene Unternehmen als unrealistisch eingestuft. Die für die KMU nicht minder gefährlichen Cyber­attacken werden nur selten publiziert.

    Aufgrund der fehlenden öffentlichen Meldungen von Sicherheitsvorfällen an Sicherheitsbehörden und wegen der fehlenden Presseberichte fällt es schwer, Fakten und Zahlen zur Risikolage zu erheben. Aber ohne diese Grundlage fällt es schwer, in entsprechende Sicherheitsmaßnahmen zu investieren.

    Erklärungsleitfaden anhand eines Ursache-Wirkungs-Modells

    Häufig nähert man sich dem Thema Cyberrisiko anlass- oder eventbezogen, also wenn sich neue Schaden­szenarien wie die weltweite WannaCry-Attacke entwickeln. Häufig wird auch akteursgebunden beleuchtet, wer Angreifer oder Opfer sein kann. Dadurch begrenzt man sich bei dem Thema häufig zu sehr nur auf die Cyberkriminalität. Um dem Thema Cyberrisiko jedoch gerecht zu werden, müssen auch weitere Ursachen hinzugezogen werden.

    Mit einer Kategorisierung kann das Thema ganzheitlich und nachvollziehbar strukturiert werden. Ebenso hilft eine solche Kategorisierung dabei, eine Abgrenzung vorzunehmen, für welche Gefahren Versicherungsschutz über eine etwaige Cyberversicherung besteht und für welche nicht.

    Die Ursachen sind dabei die Risiken, während finanzielle bzw. nicht finanzielle Verluste die Wirkungen sind. Cyberrisiken werden demnach in zwei Hauptursachen eingeteilt. Auf der einen Seite sind die nicht kriminellen Ursachen und auf der anderen Seite die kriminellen Ursachen zu nennen. Beide Ursachen können dabei in drei Untergruppen unterteilt werden.

    Nicht kriminelle Ursachen

    Höhere Gewalt

    Häufig hat man bei dem Thema Cyberrisiko nur die kriminellen Ursachen vor Augen. Aber auch höhere Gewalt kann zu einem empfindlichen Datenverlust führen oder zumindest die Verfügbarkeit von Daten einschränken, indem Rechenzentren durch Naturkatastrophen wie beispielsweise Überschwemmungen oder Erdbeben zerstört werden. Ebenso sind Stromausfälle denkbar.

    Menschliches Versagen/Fehlverhalten

    Als Cyberrisiken sind auch unbeabsichtigtes und menschliches Fehlverhalten denkbar. Hierunter könnte das versehentliche Veröffentlichen von sensiblen Informationen fallen. Möglich sind eine falsche Adressierung, Wahl einer falschen Faxnummer oder das Hochladen sensibler Daten auf einen öffentlichen Bereich der Homepage.

    Technisches Versagen

    Auch Hardwaredefekte können zu einem herben Datenverlust führen. Neben einem Überhitzen von Rechnern sind Kurzschlüsse in Systemtechnik oder sogenannte Headcrashes von Festplatten denkbare Szenarien.

    Kriminelle Ursachen

    Hackerangriffe

    Hackerangriffe oder Cyberattacken sind in der Regel die Szenarien, die die Presse dominieren. Häufig wird von spektakulären Datendiebstählen auf große Firmen oder von weltweiten Angriffen mit sogenannten Kryptotrojanern berichtet. Opfer kann am Ende aber jeder werden. Ziele, Methoden und auch das Interesse sind vielfältig. Neben dem finanziellen Interesse können Hackerangriffe auch zur Spionage oder Sabotage eingesetzt werden. Mögliche Hackermethoden sind unter anderem: Social Engineering, Trojaner, DoS-Attacken oder Viren.

    Physischer Angriff

    Die Zielsetzung eines physischen Angriffs ist ähnlich dem eines Hacker­angriffs. Dabei wird nicht auf die Tools eines Hackerangriffs zurückgegriffen, sondern durch das physische Eindringen in Unternehmensgebäude das Ziel erreicht. Häufig sind es Mitarbeiter, die vertrauliche Informationen stehlen, da sie bereits den notwendigen Zugang zu den Daten besitzen.

    Erpressung

    Obwohl die Erpressung aufgrund der eingesetzten Methoden auch als Hacker­angriff gewertet werden könnte, ergibt eine Differenzierung Sinn. Erpressungsfälle durch Kryptotrojaner sind eines der häufigsten Schadenszenarien für kleinere und mittelständische Unternehmen. Außerdem sind auch Erpressungsfälle denkbar, bei denen sensible Daten gestohlen wurden und ein Lösegeld gefordert wird, damit sie nicht veröffentlicht oder weiterverkauft werden.

    Ihre Cyberversicherung sollte zumindet folgende Schäden abdecken:

    Cyber-Kosten:

    • Soforthilfe und Forensik-Kosten (Kosten der Ursachenermittlung, Benachrichtigungskosten und Callcenter-Leistung)
    • Krisenkommunikation / PR-Maßnahmen
    • Systemverbesserungen nach einer Cyber-Attacke
    • Aufwendungen vor Eintritt des Versicherungsfalls

    Cyber-Drittschäden (Haftpflicht):

    • Befriedigung oder Abwehr von Ansprüchen Dritter
    • Rechtswidrige elektronische Kommunikation
    • Ansprüche der E-Payment-Serviceprovider
    • Vertragsstrafe wegen der Verletzung von Geheimhaltungspflichten und Datenschutzvereinbarungen
    • Vertragliche Schadenersatzansprüche
    • Vertragliche Haftpflicht bei Datenverarbeitung durch Dritte
    • Rechtsverteidigungskosten

    Cyber-Eigenschäden:

    • Betriebsunterbrechung
    • Betriebsunterbrechung durch Ausfall von Dienstleister (optional)
    • Mehrkosten
    • Wiederherstellung von Daten (auch Entfernen der Schadsoftware)
    • Cyber-Diebstahl: elektronischer Zahlungsverkehr, fehlerhafter Versand von Waren, Telefon-Mehrkosten/erhöhte Nutzungsentgelte
    • Cyber-Erpressung
    • Entschädigung mit Strafcharakter/Bußgeld
    • Ersatz-IT-Hardware
    • Cyber-Betrug