Was ist das eigentlich? Cyberrisiken verständlich erklärt

Es wird viel über Cyberrisiken gesprochen. Oftmals fehlt aber das grundsätzliche Verständnis, was Cyberrisiken überhaupt sind. Ohne diese zu verstehen, lässt sich aber auch kein Versicherungsschutz gestalten.

Beinahe alle Aktivitäten des täglichen Lebens können heute über das Internet abgewickelt werden. Online-Shopping und Online-Banking sind im Alltag angekommen. Diese Entwicklung trifft längst nicht nur auf Privatleute, sondern auch auf Firmen zu. Das Schlagwort Industrie 4.0 verheißt bereits eine zunehmende Vernetzung diverser geschäftlicher Vorgänge über das Internet.

Anbieter von Cyberversicherungen für kleinere und mittelständische Unternehmen (KMU) haben Versicherungen die Erfahrung gemacht, dass trotz dieser eindeutigen Entwicklung Cyberrisiken immer noch unterschätzt werden, da sie als etwas Abstraktes wahrgenommen werden. Für KMU kann dies ein gefährlicher Trugschluss sein, da gerade hier Cyberattacken existenzbedrohende Ausmaße annehmen können. So wird noch häufig gefragt, was Cyberrisiken eigentlich sind. Diese Frage ist mehr als verständlich, denn ohne (Cyber-)Risiken bestünde auch kein Bedarf für eine (Cyber-)Versicherung.

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What is Salesforce and What Does It Do?

No result found, try new keyword!Salesforce is a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) software that helps businesses connect with and get more information about their customer base. Salesforce is a cloud-based ...

Salesforce: Multi-Cloud Adoption Drives Big Deal Growth, Harvesting Margin And Earnings Growth

Closeup group of Asian business people meeting discuss project plan and financial results in office.

Phiromya Intawongpan

Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is the number one CRM service provider globally, and it has expanded its cloud services into sales, service, digital, platform, and data cloud. These multi-cloud platforms are becoming the core technology platforms for enterprises. They increased their deals of more than $1 million by 80% in Q3 FY23. The adoption of multi-cloud solutions is driving their topline growth. Their expense management initiatives enable them to expand their operating margins and grow their free cash flow. I am initiating a "Hold" recommendation with a fair value of $250 per share.

Multi-Cloud Strategy Salesforce TAM

Salesforce FY23 Capital Market Day

80% Growth in Large Deals is Impressive Recent Result and Outlook Salesforce financials

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Salesforce Large Deals

Salesforce FY23 Capital Market Day

Salesforce Quarterly Earnings

Salesforce Quarterly Earnings

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Valuations Salesforce DCF - Author's Calculation

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Key Risks Conclusion

Is Salesforce a Top Cloud Stock to Buy for 2024?

For much of the last decade, Salesforce (CRM -0.05%) co-founder and CEO Marc Benioff has been talking about becoming "one of the largest enterprise software companies in the world." Mission success. Salesforce is No. 3, behind much-older industry titans Microsoft and Oracle.

Salesforce's rapid growth, spurred on by a seemingly endless string of acquisitions, served its purpose for the time. The cloud software movement that Salesforce pioneered was white-hot in the 2010s. A never-ending line of start-ups fueled by venture capital money struck out to lay claim to the growing industry, and Salesforce purchased its fair share of them to bolster its status as a platform and to stave off future competition.

But times change. The software boom is over for now, and investors are demanding better profit margins rather than all-out growth. Salesforce has successfully made the pivot. After rallying 90% through the first 11 months of 2023, is the stock still a buy for 2024?

Salesforce is executing on its plan of growth and profitability

For fiscal 2024 (the 12-month period ending in January 2024), Salesforce is on track to reach about $34.8 billion in revenue. That's just an 11% year-over-year increase, far lower than the 20%-plus pace longtime shareholders have been accustomed to.

Growth is growth, though, and it's not surprising to see Salesforce's exponential rise taper off now that it's of such immense size. After all, 2023 has marked a general cooldown for the cloud software market overall, so a titan like Salesforce certainly isn't going to be immune. Time will tell if Benioff and company can reaccelerate their top-line trajectory next year (fiscal 2025, which corresponds to calendar year 2024).

CRM Revenue (TTM) Chart

Data by YCharts.

But of far more importance at this point is better operational excellence. Software is a high-profit business, but especially in the last couple of years, the long run of free cash flow generation took a breather. Net income, based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), also faltered. That was largely due to all those acquisitions, culminating in the big purchase of Slack in 2021 -- on record as one of the largest software deals ever.

But Salesforce has successfully reignited free cash flow growth, and GAAP profitability is making a big comeback too. In Q3, operating margin came in at 17%, well ahead of management's guidance and a massive improvement from just under 6% the same period last year.

CRM Free Cash Flow Chart

Data by YCharts.

A new page has been turned

There is still work to do at Salesforce in this new era of operational efficiency. One of the primary discrepancies between GAAP profits and free cash flow, for example, is employee stock-based compensation (SBC). SBC was $2.11 billion through the first nine months of this year, down a bit from the $2.47 billion the same period last year.

However, at just over 8% of total revenue, SBC is still elevated for a company of this size. If Salesforce wants to really ratchet up its profit margins, this metric will need to come down further.

Nevertheless, Benioff and the top team say they are committed to offsetting this shareholder dilution from SBC. Stock repurchases to date were $5.9 billion, more than offsetting SBC, and there's still another $10 billion left under the current buyback authorization.

It's nevertheless a good start for the more "shareholder-friendly" Salesforce as it flips from a young growth business to a mature tech giant. If the current trend continues, 2024 could be another big year of more moderate revenue growth but dramatic profit expansion.

The stock currently trades for 28 times trailing-12-month free cash flow. That looks like a reasonable price to me, especially assuming profit growth can average a low-to mid-teens percentage growth rate in the coming years. Even if the cloud software market continues at a similar pace as it has these past two years during economic turmoil, Salesforce looks like a top long-term buy.

Nicholas Rossolillo and his clients have positions in Salesforce. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft, Oracle, and Salesforce. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


 


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Warum sind Cyberrisiken so schwer greifbar?

Als mehr oder weniger neuartiges Phänomen stellen Cyberrisiken Unternehmen und Versicherer vor besondere Herausforderungen. Nicht nur die neuen Schadenszenarien sind abstrakter oder noch nicht bekannt. Häufig sind immaterielle Werte durch Cyberrisiken in Gefahr. Diese wertvollen Vermögensgegenstände sind schwer bewertbar.

Obwohl die Gefahr durchaus wahrgenommen wird, unterschätzen viele Firmen ihr eigenes Risiko. Dies liegt unter anderem auch an den Veröffentlichungen zu Cyberrisiken. In der Presse finden sich unzählige Berichte von Cyberattacken auf namhafte und große Unternehmen. Den Weg in die Presse finden eben nur die spektakulären Fälle. Die dort genannten Schadenszenarien werden dann für das eigene Unternehmen als unrealistisch eingestuft. Die für die KMU nicht minder gefährlichen Cyber­attacken werden nur selten publiziert.

Aufgrund der fehlenden öffentlichen Meldungen von Sicherheitsvorfällen an Sicherheitsbehörden und wegen der fehlenden Presseberichte fällt es schwer, Fakten und Zahlen zur Risikolage zu erheben. Aber ohne diese Grundlage fällt es schwer, in entsprechende Sicherheitsmaßnahmen zu investieren.

Erklärungsleitfaden anhand eines Ursache-Wirkungs-Modells

Häufig nähert man sich dem Thema Cyberrisiko anlass- oder eventbezogen, also wenn sich neue Schaden­szenarien wie die weltweite WannaCry-Attacke entwickeln. Häufig wird auch akteursgebunden beleuchtet, wer Angreifer oder Opfer sein kann. Dadurch begrenzt man sich bei dem Thema häufig zu sehr nur auf die Cyberkriminalität. Um dem Thema Cyberrisiko jedoch gerecht zu werden, müssen auch weitere Ursachen hinzugezogen werden.

Mit einer Kategorisierung kann das Thema ganzheitlich und nachvollziehbar strukturiert werden. Ebenso hilft eine solche Kategorisierung dabei, eine Abgrenzung vorzunehmen, für welche Gefahren Versicherungsschutz über eine etwaige Cyberversicherung besteht und für welche nicht.

Die Ursachen sind dabei die Risiken, während finanzielle bzw. nicht finanzielle Verluste die Wirkungen sind. Cyberrisiken werden demnach in zwei Hauptursachen eingeteilt. Auf der einen Seite sind die nicht kriminellen Ursachen und auf der anderen Seite die kriminellen Ursachen zu nennen. Beide Ursachen können dabei in drei Untergruppen unterteilt werden.

Nicht kriminelle Ursachen

Höhere Gewalt

Häufig hat man bei dem Thema Cyberrisiko nur die kriminellen Ursachen vor Augen. Aber auch höhere Gewalt kann zu einem empfindlichen Datenverlust führen oder zumindest die Verfügbarkeit von Daten einschränken, indem Rechenzentren durch Naturkatastrophen wie beispielsweise Überschwemmungen oder Erdbeben zerstört werden. Ebenso sind Stromausfälle denkbar.

Menschliches Versagen/Fehlverhalten

Als Cyberrisiken sind auch unbeabsichtigtes und menschliches Fehlverhalten denkbar. Hierunter könnte das versehentliche Veröffentlichen von sensiblen Informationen fallen. Möglich sind eine falsche Adressierung, Wahl einer falschen Faxnummer oder das Hochladen sensibler Daten auf einen öffentlichen Bereich der Homepage.

Technisches Versagen

Auch Hardwaredefekte können zu einem herben Datenverlust führen. Neben einem Überhitzen von Rechnern sind Kurzschlüsse in Systemtechnik oder sogenannte Headcrashes von Festplatten denkbare Szenarien.

Kriminelle Ursachen

Hackerangriffe

Hackerangriffe oder Cyberattacken sind in der Regel die Szenarien, die die Presse dominieren. Häufig wird von spektakulären Datendiebstählen auf große Firmen oder von weltweiten Angriffen mit sogenannten Kryptotrojanern berichtet. Opfer kann am Ende aber jeder werden. Ziele, Methoden und auch das Interesse sind vielfältig. Neben dem finanziellen Interesse können Hackerangriffe auch zur Spionage oder Sabotage eingesetzt werden. Mögliche Hackermethoden sind unter anderem: Social Engineering, Trojaner, DoS-Attacken oder Viren.

Physischer Angriff

Die Zielsetzung eines physischen Angriffs ist ähnlich dem eines Hacker­angriffs. Dabei wird nicht auf die Tools eines Hackerangriffs zurückgegriffen, sondern durch das physische Eindringen in Unternehmensgebäude das Ziel erreicht. Häufig sind es Mitarbeiter, die vertrauliche Informationen stehlen, da sie bereits den notwendigen Zugang zu den Daten besitzen.

Erpressung

Obwohl die Erpressung aufgrund der eingesetzten Methoden auch als Hacker­angriff gewertet werden könnte, ergibt eine Differenzierung Sinn. Erpressungsfälle durch Kryptotrojaner sind eines der häufigsten Schadenszenarien für kleinere und mittelständische Unternehmen. Außerdem sind auch Erpressungsfälle denkbar, bei denen sensible Daten gestohlen wurden und ein Lösegeld gefordert wird, damit sie nicht veröffentlicht oder weiterverkauft werden.

Ihre Cyberversicherung sollte zumindet folgende Schäden abdecken:

Cyber-Kosten:

  • Soforthilfe und Forensik-Kosten (Kosten der Ursachenermittlung, Benachrichtigungskosten und Callcenter-Leistung)
  • Krisenkommunikation / PR-Maßnahmen
  • Systemverbesserungen nach einer Cyber-Attacke
  • Aufwendungen vor Eintritt des Versicherungsfalls

Cyber-Drittschäden (Haftpflicht):

  • Befriedigung oder Abwehr von Ansprüchen Dritter
  • Rechtswidrige elektronische Kommunikation
  • Ansprüche der E-Payment-Serviceprovider
  • Vertragsstrafe wegen der Verletzung von Geheimhaltungspflichten und Datenschutzvereinbarungen
  • Vertragliche Schadenersatzansprüche
  • Vertragliche Haftpflicht bei Datenverarbeitung durch Dritte
  • Rechtsverteidigungskosten

Cyber-Eigenschäden:

  • Betriebsunterbrechung
  • Betriebsunterbrechung durch Ausfall von Dienstleister (optional)
  • Mehrkosten
  • Wiederherstellung von Daten (auch Entfernen der Schadsoftware)
  • Cyber-Diebstahl: elektronischer Zahlungsverkehr, fehlerhafter Versand von Waren, Telefon-Mehrkosten/erhöhte Nutzungsentgelte
  • Cyber-Erpressung
  • Entschädigung mit Strafcharakter/Bußgeld
  • Ersatz-IT-Hardware
  • Cyber-Betrug