Was ist das eigentlich? Cyberrisiken verständlich erklärt

Es wird viel über Cyberrisiken gesprochen. Oftmals fehlt aber das grundsätzliche Verständnis, was Cyberrisiken überhaupt sind. Ohne diese zu verstehen, lässt sich aber auch kein Versicherungsschutz gestalten.

Beinahe alle Aktivitäten des täglichen Lebens können heute über das Internet abgewickelt werden. Online-Shopping und Online-Banking sind im Alltag angekommen. Diese Entwicklung trifft längst nicht nur auf Privatleute, sondern auch auf Firmen zu. Das Schlagwort Industrie 4.0 verheißt bereits eine zunehmende Vernetzung diverser geschäftlicher Vorgänge über das Internet.

Anbieter von Cyberversicherungen für kleinere und mittelständische Unternehmen (KMU) haben Versicherungen die Erfahrung gemacht, dass trotz dieser eindeutigen Entwicklung Cyberrisiken immer noch unterschätzt werden, da sie als etwas Abstraktes wahrgenommen werden. Für KMU kann dies ein gefährlicher Trugschluss sein, da gerade hier Cyberattacken existenzbedrohende Ausmaße annehmen können. So wird noch häufig gefragt, was Cyberrisiken eigentlich sind. Diese Frage ist mehr als verständlich, denn ohne (Cyber-)Risiken bestünde auch kein Bedarf für eine (Cyber-)Versicherung.

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Is Cisco Systems Stock a Buy Now?

Cisco Systems' (CSCO 0.94%) stock rose 3% on Aug. 17 after the networking giant posted its latest earnings report. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, which ended on July 29, its revenue rose 16% year over year to $15.2 billion and exceeded analysts' estimates by $150 million. Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 37% to $1.14 and also cleared the consensus forecast by $0.08. Those headline numbers were impressive, but is Cisco still worth buying in this wobbly market?

Reviewing Cisco's previous challenges

Cisco is the world's largest producer of networking switches and routers. It also bundles cybersecurity, enterprise collaboration, and cloud-based data observability services with its hardware to lock in its customers and widen its moat.

An IT professional works on a server in a data center.

Image source: Getty Images.

In fiscal 2023, Cisco generated 67% of its product revenue from its secure and agile networks division, which sells its switches, enterprise routers, and wireless products. Supply chain constraints curbed the growth of this business in fiscal 2022, and Cisco failed to meet the enterprise market's post-pandemic demand for new networking products. But it overcame those headwinds in fiscal 2023 -- and the segment's growth accelerated as it finally satisfied the market's pent-up demand.

The rest of Cisco's product revenue came from its "Internet for the Future" division (12%), which sells its top-tier 8000-series routers; its end-to-end security division (9%), which provides its cybersecurity services; its collaboration division (9%), which provides on-premise and cloud-based conferencing tools; and its optimized application experiences division (2%), which hosts its ThousandEyes observability platform.

Over the past year, Cisco's Internet for the Future sales accelerated again alongside its core secure and agile networks business as it overcame its supply chain issues. Its optimized application experiences segment also continued to expand as more companies adopted ThousandEyes to monitor their networks in real time.

However, its end-to-end security business suffered a slowdown as more companies reined in their cybersecurity spending in this tougher macro environment. Its collaboration business also struggled as the usage of cloud-based video conferencing platforms cooled off in a post-pandemic market. Cisco's Webex also still trails far behind Zoom Video Communications in that market.

How fast is Cisco growing?

But as the following table illustrates, Cisco's strengths easily offset its weaknesses -- and its year-over-year revenue growth has consistently accelerated over the past year.

Product Revenue Growth by Segment (YOY)

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Secure and agile networks

(1%)

12%

14%

29%

33%

Internet for the future

(10%)

(5%)

(1%)

5%

3%

End-to-end security

20%

9%

7%

2%

0%

Collaboration

2%

(2%)

(10%)

(13%)

(12%)

Optimized application experiences

8%

7%

11%

12%

15%

Total revenue

0%

6%

7%

14%

16%

Data source: Cisco. YOY = Year over year.

For the full year, Cisco's revenue and adjusted EPS rose 11% and 16%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, it expects its revenue to rise 0% to 2% as its adjusted EPS grows 3% to 5%. That slowdown can mainly be attributed to challenging comparisons against its robust recovery throughout fiscal 2023 instead of any major near-term challenges.

Will Cisco's margins continue to expand?

Cisco's revenue growth is cooling off again, but its adjusted gross and operating margins -- which were squeezed by supply chain constraints and high logistics costs in fiscal 2022 -- continued to expand sequentially and year over year.

Metric

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Adjusted gross margin

63.3%

63%

63.9%

65.2%

65.9%

Adjusted operating margin

32.4%

31.8%

32.5%

33.9%

35.4%

Data source: Cisco.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Cisco expects to maintain an adjusted gross margin of 65% to 66% and an adjusted operating margin of 34% to 35%. That stable margin expansion, along with its constant buybacks (it repurchased $10.6 billion in shares in fiscal 2023), should help it grow its EPS at a faster clip than its revenue throughout fiscal 2024. 

Is it the right time to buy Cisco?

After a tough slowdown in fiscal 2022 and an impressive recovery in fiscal 2023, investors should expect Cisco to return to its historic norm of low-single-digit revenue and earnings growth in fiscal 2024.

But at $55, Cisco still looks cheap at 14 times its estimated adjusted EPS this year, and it pays a decent forward dividend yield of 3%. Its smaller rival Juniper, which experienced a similar recovery over the past year, trades at 12 times forward earnings and pays a slightly higher forward dividend yield of 3.2%.

Cisco's low valuation and high yield should limit its downside potential and make it good safe-haven stock for this wobbly market. It's not an exciting growth stock, but it could still generate consistent returns for patient, long-term investors.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Cisco Systems and Zoom Video Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Cisco Systems Is 'A Shelter In The Storm': 5 Analysts Deep Dive Into FQ4 Print

Shares of Cisco Systems Inc CSCO were rising on Thursday, after the company reported higher-than-expected revenues and earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter.

The results came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways from the earnings release.

Morgan Stanley On Cisco Systems

Analyst Meta Marshall maintained an Equal-Weight rating while raising the price target from $55 to $56.

After a volatile earnings season in networking, Cisco Systems’ fiscal fourth quarter results were “a pleasant surprise,” Marshall said in a note.

Although the Cisco Live event highlighted a lack of traction with its refreshed security portfolio, the company “continues to be a shelter in the storm, able to deliver upon results and outlook given more diversified customer base than most networking companies (1mm+ customers and partners),” he added.

Needham On Cisco Systems

Analyst Alex Henderson reiterated a Hold rating on the stock.

Cisco Systems’ backlogs have depleted faster than expected and “is now expected to be largely completed in FY1Q,” Henderson said.

“Virtually all of FY24's earnings growth is expected in FY1Q, the quarter during which CSCO's backlog is expected to run off,” the analyst wrote. “We expect little to no growth after the backlog is consumed and forecast y/y quarterly EPS declines in FY2H,” he added.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Oppenheimer On Cisco Systems

Analyst Ittai Kidron reaffirmed an Outperform rating and price target of $58.

Cisco Systems reported solid quarterly results, driven by “stable demand and easing input costs,” Kidron wrote.

“The company delivered strong product growth (+20.4% YoY) as it continues to fulfill its substantial backlog, with particular strength in Secure Agile Networking (+33% YoY),” the analyst stated. “The results were balanced by a FY24 revenue guide that missed estimates as the COVID-related backlog normalizes,” he added.

KeyBanc Capital Markets On Cisco Systems

Analyst Thomas Blakey maintained a Sector Weight rating on the stock.

“Orders rebounded over 30% sequentially but were still down 14% y/y (vs. -6% compare in F4Q22),” Blakey wrote in a note.

“Cisco commentary was positive on stabilizing conditions including that its internal sales forecasts beat in July by several hundred million dollars,” he added. “The Company appeared confident on Ethernet-based AI (Silicon One) opportunities, highlighting $500M in AI orders to date, but sees demand inflection more likely in FY25, similar to peers,” the analyst further stated.

JMP Capital Markets On Cisco Systems

Analyst Erik Suppiger reiterated a Market Perform rating on the stock.

“F4Q23 order growth of (14%) Y/Y was an improvement from the (20%)+ growth in the past two quarters,” Suppiger said.

“Cisco’s transition into more of a software company was relatively robust, with software growth of 17% in F4Q23, and software subscription sales growth of 20% Y/Y,” he added.

CSCO Price Action: Shares of Cisco Systems had risen by 4.66% to $55.43 at the time of publication Thursday.

Photo: Shutterstock

© 2023 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.


 




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Warum sind Cyberrisiken so schwer greifbar?

Als mehr oder weniger neuartiges Phänomen stellen Cyberrisiken Unternehmen und Versicherer vor besondere Herausforderungen. Nicht nur die neuen Schadenszenarien sind abstrakter oder noch nicht bekannt. Häufig sind immaterielle Werte durch Cyberrisiken in Gefahr. Diese wertvollen Vermögensgegenstände sind schwer bewertbar.

Obwohl die Gefahr durchaus wahrgenommen wird, unterschätzen viele Firmen ihr eigenes Risiko. Dies liegt unter anderem auch an den Veröffentlichungen zu Cyberrisiken. In der Presse finden sich unzählige Berichte von Cyberattacken auf namhafte und große Unternehmen. Den Weg in die Presse finden eben nur die spektakulären Fälle. Die dort genannten Schadenszenarien werden dann für das eigene Unternehmen als unrealistisch eingestuft. Die für die KMU nicht minder gefährlichen Cyber­attacken werden nur selten publiziert.

Aufgrund der fehlenden öffentlichen Meldungen von Sicherheitsvorfällen an Sicherheitsbehörden und wegen der fehlenden Presseberichte fällt es schwer, Fakten und Zahlen zur Risikolage zu erheben. Aber ohne diese Grundlage fällt es schwer, in entsprechende Sicherheitsmaßnahmen zu investieren.

Erklärungsleitfaden anhand eines Ursache-Wirkungs-Modells

Häufig nähert man sich dem Thema Cyberrisiko anlass- oder eventbezogen, also wenn sich neue Schaden­szenarien wie die weltweite WannaCry-Attacke entwickeln. Häufig wird auch akteursgebunden beleuchtet, wer Angreifer oder Opfer sein kann. Dadurch begrenzt man sich bei dem Thema häufig zu sehr nur auf die Cyberkriminalität. Um dem Thema Cyberrisiko jedoch gerecht zu werden, müssen auch weitere Ursachen hinzugezogen werden.

Mit einer Kategorisierung kann das Thema ganzheitlich und nachvollziehbar strukturiert werden. Ebenso hilft eine solche Kategorisierung dabei, eine Abgrenzung vorzunehmen, für welche Gefahren Versicherungsschutz über eine etwaige Cyberversicherung besteht und für welche nicht.

Die Ursachen sind dabei die Risiken, während finanzielle bzw. nicht finanzielle Verluste die Wirkungen sind. Cyberrisiken werden demnach in zwei Hauptursachen eingeteilt. Auf der einen Seite sind die nicht kriminellen Ursachen und auf der anderen Seite die kriminellen Ursachen zu nennen. Beide Ursachen können dabei in drei Untergruppen unterteilt werden.

Nicht kriminelle Ursachen

Höhere Gewalt

Häufig hat man bei dem Thema Cyberrisiko nur die kriminellen Ursachen vor Augen. Aber auch höhere Gewalt kann zu einem empfindlichen Datenverlust führen oder zumindest die Verfügbarkeit von Daten einschränken, indem Rechenzentren durch Naturkatastrophen wie beispielsweise Überschwemmungen oder Erdbeben zerstört werden. Ebenso sind Stromausfälle denkbar.

Menschliches Versagen/Fehlverhalten

Als Cyberrisiken sind auch unbeabsichtigtes und menschliches Fehlverhalten denkbar. Hierunter könnte das versehentliche Veröffentlichen von sensiblen Informationen fallen. Möglich sind eine falsche Adressierung, Wahl einer falschen Faxnummer oder das Hochladen sensibler Daten auf einen öffentlichen Bereich der Homepage.

Technisches Versagen

Auch Hardwaredefekte können zu einem herben Datenverlust führen. Neben einem Überhitzen von Rechnern sind Kurzschlüsse in Systemtechnik oder sogenannte Headcrashes von Festplatten denkbare Szenarien.

Kriminelle Ursachen

Hackerangriffe

Hackerangriffe oder Cyberattacken sind in der Regel die Szenarien, die die Presse dominieren. Häufig wird von spektakulären Datendiebstählen auf große Firmen oder von weltweiten Angriffen mit sogenannten Kryptotrojanern berichtet. Opfer kann am Ende aber jeder werden. Ziele, Methoden und auch das Interesse sind vielfältig. Neben dem finanziellen Interesse können Hackerangriffe auch zur Spionage oder Sabotage eingesetzt werden. Mögliche Hackermethoden sind unter anderem: Social Engineering, Trojaner, DoS-Attacken oder Viren.

Physischer Angriff

Die Zielsetzung eines physischen Angriffs ist ähnlich dem eines Hacker­angriffs. Dabei wird nicht auf die Tools eines Hackerangriffs zurückgegriffen, sondern durch das physische Eindringen in Unternehmensgebäude das Ziel erreicht. Häufig sind es Mitarbeiter, die vertrauliche Informationen stehlen, da sie bereits den notwendigen Zugang zu den Daten besitzen.

Erpressung

Obwohl die Erpressung aufgrund der eingesetzten Methoden auch als Hacker­angriff gewertet werden könnte, ergibt eine Differenzierung Sinn. Erpressungsfälle durch Kryptotrojaner sind eines der häufigsten Schadenszenarien für kleinere und mittelständische Unternehmen. Außerdem sind auch Erpressungsfälle denkbar, bei denen sensible Daten gestohlen wurden und ein Lösegeld gefordert wird, damit sie nicht veröffentlicht oder weiterverkauft werden.

Ihre Cyberversicherung sollte zumindet folgende Schäden abdecken:

Cyber-Kosten:

  • Soforthilfe und Forensik-Kosten (Kosten der Ursachenermittlung, Benachrichtigungskosten und Callcenter-Leistung)
  • Krisenkommunikation / PR-Maßnahmen
  • Systemverbesserungen nach einer Cyber-Attacke
  • Aufwendungen vor Eintritt des Versicherungsfalls

Cyber-Drittschäden (Haftpflicht):

  • Befriedigung oder Abwehr von Ansprüchen Dritter
  • Rechtswidrige elektronische Kommunikation
  • Ansprüche der E-Payment-Serviceprovider
  • Vertragsstrafe wegen der Verletzung von Geheimhaltungspflichten und Datenschutzvereinbarungen
  • Vertragliche Schadenersatzansprüche
  • Vertragliche Haftpflicht bei Datenverarbeitung durch Dritte
  • Rechtsverteidigungskosten

Cyber-Eigenschäden:

  • Betriebsunterbrechung
  • Betriebsunterbrechung durch Ausfall von Dienstleister (optional)
  • Mehrkosten
  • Wiederherstellung von Daten (auch Entfernen der Schadsoftware)
  • Cyber-Diebstahl: elektronischer Zahlungsverkehr, fehlerhafter Versand von Waren, Telefon-Mehrkosten/erhöhte Nutzungsentgelte
  • Cyber-Erpressung
  • Entschädigung mit Strafcharakter/Bußgeld
  • Ersatz-IT-Hardware
  • Cyber-Betrug